Tackling high employee turnover before it's too late

Three weeks' notice. That's all I got.

When Jessica, one of our top performers, submitted her resignation, I was blindsided. She'd seemed happy in our last one-on-one. Her performance was stellar. She'd even volunteered to mentor a new hire the previous month.

Yet there she was, apologetic but resolute, explaining that she'd accepted an offer at a competitor.

"How long have you been looking?" I asked.

"About three months."

Three months. We'd had six one-on-ones during that time, and I'd completely missed that she was one foot out the door.

The True Cost of Turnover

Losing Jessica wasn't just disappointing—it was expensive.

Research from the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) estimates that replacing an employee costs between 6-9 months of their salary. For a senior engineer making $150K, that's $75-110K in:

• Recruiting costs
• Lost productivity during the vacancy
• Onboarding and training time for the replacement
• Knowledge loss and institutional memory
• Impact on team morale

But beyond the dollars, there's a more insidious cost: the signal it sends to the team. When a respected colleague leaves, everyone else starts wondering if they should too.

The pattern I missed

After Jessica's departure, I went back through our meeting notes looking for clues. They were there—subtle, but unmistakable once I knew what to look for:

8 weeks before resignation:

"How's everything going?" "Fine. Busy, but fine."

What I missed: Her answers became shorter, less enthusiastic. Previous meetings, she'd share details about her work and projects she was excited about. Now, just "fine."

6 weeks before:

"What are you thinking about for career development?" "I'm not sure. I guess I should think about that more."

What I missed: This was a huge red flag. Three months earlier, she'd had specific goals about leading a team. Now, suddenly vague.

4 weeks before:

She cancelled our one-on-one, citing a deadline.

What I missed: This was our first cancellation in a year. She was disengaging.

2 weeks before:

"Everything okay? You seem quiet lately." "Yeah, just tired. A lot going on."

What I missed: I accepted the surface explanation instead of probing deeper.

Looking back, the pattern was obvious: gradual disengagement, declining enthusiasm, shorter responses, cancelled meetings, vague future talk.

She was already checked out. I just didn't see it.

The early warning system

After analyzing dozens of resignations across our company, I identified seven reliable early warning signs:

1. Changes in communication patterns

People who are mentally checked out become less engaged in conversations. Watch for:

• Shorter responses in one-on-ones
• Less participation in team discussions
• Delayed responses to messages
• Shift from enthusiastic to perfunctory

2. Declining meeting attendance

Skipping optional meetings, cancelling one-on-ones, arriving late, or leaving early. When someone stops prioritizing face time, they're creating emotional distance.

3. Vague future talk

When you ask about career goals or next quarter's priorities, disengaged employees become non-committal.

"What are you excited about for next quarter?" "Uh, I guess we'll see what comes up."

Compare that to engaged employees who have opinions and ideas about the future.

4. Decreased initiative

The person who used to volunteer for projects now does only what's assigned. They stop suggesting improvements or questioning decisions.

5. Increased complaints without follow-up

They mention frustrations but seem uninterested in solutions. This suggests they've mentally moved on and are just venting, not problem-solving.

6. Changes in work patterns

Arriving exactly on time, leaving exactly on time, taking all their PTO after months of not using it, or suddenly using sick days more frequently.

7. Polished online presence

Check LinkedIn. If someone who hasn't updated their profile in years suddenly has a new headshot and detailed project descriptions, they're probably job hunting.

The intervention framework

Once you've identified someone who might be at risk, here's how to intervene:

Step 1: Create space for honesty

Schedule a one-on-one in a private, comfortable setting (not a conference room). Start with:

"I want to check in on how you're really doing—not just with projects, but with your overall experience here. I've noticed you seem less engaged lately, and I want to understand what's going on."

Step 2: Listen without defensiveness

Whatever they share, resist the urge to justify, explain, or fix immediately. Just listen.

"The work feels repetitive." Don't say: "But you're learning so much!" Do say: "Tell me more about that. What would make it feel more challenging?"

Step 3: Probe for the real issue

Often, the first thing someone says isn't the core issue. Ask follow-up questions:

• "What else?"
• "When did you start feeling this way?"
• "If you could change one thing, what would it be?"

Step 4: Assess if it's fixable

Some issues you can address. Some you can't.

Fixable:

• Boring work → Can you rotate them to different projects?
• Lack of growth → Can you create development opportunities?
• Relationship conflicts → Can you mediate or reorganize?
• Compensation concerns → Can you advocate for a raise or bonus?

Unfixable:

• They want to work in a different industry
• They're relocating for personal reasons
• They have fundamental value misalignment with the company

Step 5: Create a concrete plan (if fixable)

Vague promises don't retain people. Specific commitments might.

Bad: "We'll work on getting you more interesting projects."

Good: "Starting next sprint, I'll assign you as tech lead on the new API redesign. We'll also have a career conversation in two weeks to talk about a path to senior engineer, which I think you're ready for."

Step 6: Follow through ruthlessly

If you commit to changes, deliver them. Quickly. If you can't, explain why and offer alternatives.

A broken promise after a retention conversation is worse than no conversation at all.

What I learned from Jessica

After Jessica left, I asked for an exit interview. She was gracious enough to be honest:

"I felt like I was doing the same work over and over. I mentioned wanting to learn machine learning, but nothing came of it. When the ML team at [competitor] reached out, it felt like the growth opportunity I was looking for."

She'd told me she wanted to explore ML. I'd said "that's great" and then... done nothing. No projects, no training budget, no introductions to people who could mentor her.

I thought listening was enough. It wasn't. She needed action.

The retention mindset shift

Here's what changed for me: I stopped thinking of retention as something I do when people are leaving, and started thinking of it as something I do every day they're staying.

Retention isn't about counteroffers and exit interviews. It's about:

• Regular development conversations
• Clear career paths
• Interesting work
• Feeling valued
• Trust that concerns will be addressed

By the time someone's actively job hunting, you're already late.

The Bottom line

People don't leave companies overnight. They leave gradually, over weeks and months of small disappointments and unaddressed concerns.

Your job as a manager isn't to prevent all attrition—some departures are inevitable and even healthy. Your job is to prevent the preventable.

Pay attention to the signals. Have the hard conversations early. Take action on what you learn.

Because by the time someone gives you three weeks' notice, the conversation you needed to have happened three months ago.